So This Happened

[Swordslinger]

[tehjman1993]

That's incredible! Assuming each attack has an equal chance of activating, then the chances of getting 8 yellow attacks in a row is simply (1/4)^8, an amazing 1/65536 chance of happening, which is roughly a .001526% chance. Either something bugged out with how the RNG was seeded, or this is equivalent to a small lottery winner. Neat!

To put that in perspective, that's about as equal of a chance of you dying from a cataclysmic storm (1 in 63,679) or from contact with bees (1 in 64,706)!*

*Source: https://www.nsc.org/NSC%20Images_Corporate/odds-of-dying-graphic.jpg

Edit: Ok now I realize there are a ton of death statistics, but I found a few happier ones!

You are roughly three times as likely to become a professional athlete (1 in 22,000) than get yellow attack 8 times in a row. Better yet, the odds of dating a supermodel (1 in 88,000) is almost the same odds as yellow attack 8x consecutively!

Unrelated: For yellow attack part 2, is it random which apples will bounce? It seems nearly impossible to tell which ones will bounce and which ones will not, especially when you are dodging them.

[sharkruisher]

Yellow for days

[lawatson]

I guess i should also bring up the fact that the probability will drastically change assuming you have killed 1,2, or 3 non-yellow attacks. That's 1/6561 if you have killed one attack, 1/256 if you have killed two, and 1/1 (guaranteed assuming you didn't manage to fuck the system somehow) if you killed all 3. It's also 0 if you kill yellow. Hue.

I won't research the real-world counterparts to those outcomes because I'm pretty damn lazy, but if you do the division you'll see that it's approximately 9.99x as likely to get it when you've killed 1, about 256x or 25.6x as likely when you've killed 2 (in comparison to 1/4^8 and 1/2^8 respectively), and you know the rest. So I think that concludes that.

EDIT: Sharkruiser just said "yellow for days". That's interesting enough for me to do the math on THAT as well.

Let's begin. Based on my approximate measurements, each Destination attack lasts about 12 seconds. To get how many spans of 12 seconds would last in a single day, you'll have to do a bit of multiplication with units. 5 spans is one minute, 120 spans is one hour, and 2880 spans is one 24-hour day.

So, 2880 spans can be reworded now into 2880 attacks. That means that the chances are gonna be super fucking low. I'll post each value here.

All 2 are alive:
The chance is algebraically 1/2^2880. 1/2^16 is 1/65536, which is that rare fucking chance from above, and probably the best starting point to demonstrate the brutal difference in probability. That then becomes 1/65536^180, or about 300-400 digits. If you're not in the right mindset, I'll explain to you that if 1/65536 is approximated to 10^-5, then the new probability we have is quite probably 10^-300. Not multiplication. Exponentiation. And that's still so much more possible than for 3 days and 4 days.

All 3 are alive:
The chance is algebraically 1/3^2880. 1/3^9 is 1/19683, so then that would make the chance 1/19683^320, which this time is about 700-800 digits rightwards of zero. Trust me, in powers of ten, that is so, SO much better than if all 4 were alive, but it's still virtually impossible.

All 4 are alive:
The chance is algebraically 1/4^2880. 1/4^4 is 1/256, but if you start from there now you have to work with 1/256^720, which is a fucking LOT. Pretty sure that would be a number with a decimal at least 1500 digits to the right. That's insane.

So yeah, that's it for answering sharkruiser's unasked question. I approximated a *lot*, so if you want to detect some shit that's wrong with my logic, be sure to go on ahead. I'm done here, though.

[Wolsk]

oh !

[aytoms29]

h o l y  s i m o n  c o w e l l



dude nice!